Great Power Rivalries in a Fragmented World: How the Gulf Region Adapts

The Gulf region finds itself navigating a critical juncture, marked by enduring geopolitical tensions, reconfigured alliances, and the recent conflict with Iran. The United States’ shifting engagement in the Middle East—reflected in its efforts to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, manage the Palestine/Gaza issue, and contain ISIS—adds to regional uncertainty amid a perceived interest to pivot toward the Indo-Pacific maritime domain. Meanwhile, Gulf states are increasingly diversifying their partnerships through platforms like the G20, BRICS, and SCO, reflecting a broader global move toward multipolarity. The persistent conflicts in Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, and the Levant, coupled with the complex dynamics between Iran and Israel, underscore the region’s fragile security landscape.

Over the past decade, great power rivalries have increasingly influenced the Gulf, reshaping the region’s strategic outlook. The United States, historically the dominant external power in the Gulf, maintains its superiority in terms of military presence, arms transfers, and diplomatic engagement, contrary to the notion of a total retreat from the region. However, the conclusion of the U.S.-led global coalition mission in Iraq in September 2025,2 along with the withdrawal from Syria during the second Trump administration, have created perceived power vacuums. Washington’s stated isolationist tendency raises concerns about security guarantees in the Middle East and creates vulnerabilities amid ongoing regional conflicts.

China’s growing economic and strategic engagement through initiatives like the BRI, coupled with its comprehensive strategic  partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, highlights Beijing’s ambitions to cement its influence. Moreover, Russia’s strategic footholds, including its remaining military bases in the Mediterranean, efforts for de-dollarization through BRICS, and its cooperation with Saudi Arabia through OPEC+, further complicate the balance of power. Meanwhile, Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China as the main buyer of its natural resources and the main supplier of its imports.