The role of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the global supply chain has often come under international scrutiny in the context of energy supply. Home to the maritime chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab, and the Suez Canal, the region witnessed the passage of just under 30% of global trade,1 20% of global LNG (mostly from Qatar), 25% of global seaborne oil trade (from Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, alongside Iran), and 30% of global trade in urea, ammonia, and other fertilizers and byproducts of petroleum.2 The Suez Canal has held historical significance for global commerce, serving as the shortest passage for trade from Europe into Asia and vice versa. Similarly, the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and beyond into the Indian Ocean. Both maritime points came under stress in late 2023 when the Israel-Gaza war prompted a wave of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea waters by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. While this was portrayed as retaliation in solidarity with Palestine, its commercial impact was the decline of shipping through the Suez Canal by 80% in June 2024 (YoY). Vessels then had to reroute through the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-30 extra days to the journey,3 depending upon the point of origin of the vessel.
In 2026, with the onslaught of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for commercial shipping. During the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, the “Tanker War” resulted in what was described as a flagrant violation of international maritime law when shipping vessels of both sides were attacked along the Strait of Hormuz. However, the passage was mostly open for commercial shipping, with vessels escorted by the relevant navies.4 Therefore, the 2026 closure is the first large-scale disruption to commercial shipping and, consequently, large volumes of oil and non-oil trade originating from Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf states.
The post-2023 trade disruption is not the first instance of disruption to commerce and supply chains. The COVID-19 pandemic witnessed a sharp downturn in global shipping due to sharp changes in consumer demand and strict health protocols.5 The Russia-Ukraine war resulted in disruption to energy and food supply, causing widespread inflation.6 Now, the Middle Eastern conflict is witnessing what history has witnessed countless times before, reinforcing the reality that supply chain resilience has practical limits during periods of geopolitical conflict.
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