A new study published by TRENDS Research & Advisory through its North Africa Virtual Office examines the evolution of European conditionality in relations with the Maghreb, concluding that its substance, objectives, and instruments have undergone significant transformations over the past three decades. While the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and the European Neighborhood Policy were initially built on the assumption that economic and institutional integration would gradually foster democratic transformation, subsequent developments have shown that security, energy, and geopolitical considerations have become increasingly influential in shaping the European Union’s relations with the Maghreb.
The study argues that Euro-Maghreb relations have gradually shifted from a normative conditionality centered on democracy and human rights toward a more pragmatic conditionality that prioritizes political stability, security, energy, migration management, and regional stability within a framework of mutual interests. It examines this transformation by analyzing the legal and institutional foundations of European conditionality, tracing the evolution of its objectives and policy instruments, and reviewing the cases of the five Maghreb countries: Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, and Mauritania.
Europe’s Priorities
Authored by Dr. Jinan Al-Imam, professor of public law and researcher based in Tunisia, the study argues that the setbacks experienced by democratic transitions after 2011, together with rising security threats, increased migration pressures, and the Russia-Ukraine war, prompted a reordering of European priorities, placing political stability, migration management, and energy security ahead of the political reform agenda. According to the study, the 2025 Pact for the Mediterranean represents the clearest institutional expression of this shift, as it establishes partnerships based primarily on mutual interests and the capacity to address shared challenges rather than on promoting European political norms.
The study further argues that the future of Euro-Maghreb relations will depend on the ability of both sides to build a more balanced partnership that reconciles short-term stability with long-term development objectives and enables a transition from relationships characterized by dependency and unequal negotiation toward one founded on shared interests, sustainable development, and balanced cooperation.
A Strategic Energy Trade Gateway
Dr. Jinan Al-Imam highlights the Maghreb as one of the European Union’s most strategically important neighboring regions, playing a central role in Europe’s security, stability, and economic prosperity. The region serves as Europe’s gateway to Sub-Saharan Africa and constitutes a vital corridor for energy supplies, international trade, and migration management. Beyond these geopolitical considerations, Europe and the Maghreb maintain deep historical, cultural, and economic ties rooted in centuries of shared interaction.
The study concludes that, since the end of the Cold War, European institutions have increasingly recognized that Europe’s security can no longer be confined to its internal borders. Instead, it has become closely linked to the stability of its southern neighborhood and the political, economic, social, and security challenges it faces. As a result, the Maghreb has emerged as a direct strategic extension of the European sphere and a central pillar of the European Union’s neighborhood and regional cooperation policies.
