A study, The Rise of Regionalism in Southeast Asia: Fragmentation or Restructuring?, released by TRENDS Research & Advisory, part of the TRENDS Group, examines the rise of regionalism in Southeast Asia and whether the international system is experiencing fragmentation or restructuring. It focuses on three main points: the impact of international turmoil on Southeast Asia (ASEAN); how ASEAN uses regionalism to secure its geopolitical and economic interests; and its role at the international level, including whether it influences the global system. The study, prepared by Noor Al Mutawwa, Assistant Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory, shows that the international system is not in a simple state of collapse or reconstruction, but is more complex than it appears. Several gaps within international organizations prevent them from addressing vital issues, causing further turmoil. However, these organizations can still impose binding agreements through the participation of major powers. Where the international system cannot, regionalism fills these gaps by taking on greater responsibilities.
Managing Regional Risks
The study notes that Southeast Asia is characterized by a strategic location, economic openness, and political diversity, making it vulnerable to major power competition. Some countries in the region have become increasingly reliant on ASEAN, transforming its role from a primarily cooperative forum into a regional tool for managing risks and confronting external pressures. ASEAN does not impose rules; instead, it focuses on reducing tensions and preventing conflict escalation. This shift reflects a broader change in how the system is sustained in a volatile global environment. The study indicates that ASEAN’s promotion of regionalism demonstrates how regional organizations can advance both geopolitical and economic interests. Through ASEAN-led summits, member states collectively shape how major powers engage with the region. Although ASEAN does not control the outcomes, it influences their trajectory by providing diplomatic platforms. On the economic side, deeper regional integration has strengthened ASEAN’s collective bargaining power and increased its global importance. Trade and digital economy initiatives show that regional cooperation can deliver tangible benefits.
Bridging Governance Gaps
The study concludes that the ASEAN experience shows that regionalism does not replace the international system, but operates within its framework. ASEAN does not seek to challenge global institutions or establish an alternative world order. Instead, it helps bridge the governance gaps created by international failures and contributes to regional stability, particularly in areas where conflict may have significant global repercussions. This indicates that the international system is not fractured beyond repair, but is being reshaped through regional mechanisms that seek to manage complexity, reduce risks, and maintain cooperation in a changing world.
