A seminar organized by TRENDS Global through its Virtual Office in Cairo concluded that the 13 years since the Muslim Brotherhood was removed from power in Egypt have marked a decisive turning point in the movement’s history. The period has fundamentally reshaped its organizational, ideological, and political presence amid declining domestic, regional, and international influence, deepening internal divisions, and mounting challenges as the organization approaches the centenary of its founding.
Held to coincide with the anniversary of the June 30 Revolution, the seminar – The Muslim Brotherhood Thirteen Years After Its Removal from Power in Egypt: From Rise to Decline – reflected TRENDS’ commitment to examining the Brotherhood’s decline and the transformations affecting Islamist movements and their implications for regional and global security and stability.
The discussion featured Dr. Tawfik Aclimandos, Tarek Abu Al-Saad, Ahmed Ban, and Mounir Adib, and was moderated by Alia Al Nuaimi, Senior Researcher at TRENDS. Participants examined the Brotherhood’s condition more than a decade after losing power, its declining organizational and ideological reach, and its future trajectory considering ongoing political, security, and intellectual developments.
The Organization’s Trajectory and Transformations
Opening the seminar, Alia Al Nuaimi emphasized that the discussion calls for an objective, evidence-based assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood’s trajectory since its removal from power 13 years ago. She noted that the debate has moved beyond the reasons for the group’s downfall to its political project’s outcomes and its ability to reinvent itself amid declining influence and growing scrutiny.
She stressed that confronting extremist organizations cannot rely solely on security measures but must also include dismantling their ideological foundations, strengthening public awareness, and distinguishing between religion as a system of values and its exploitation for political and organizational purposes.
A Defining Turning Point
The speakers agreed that the events of 2013 represent the most significant turning point in the Brotherhood’s history since its establishment in 1928. Beyond losing political power, the organization has faced profound changes in leadership, structure, discourse, financing, recruitment, and networks, underscoring the scale of its decline.
Ahmed Ban observed that although the Brotherhood had survived previous crises, the current one strikes at the organization’s foundations. He noted that some leaders now appear more inclined to replace the traditional hierarchy with open intellectual and media engagement, increasingly relying on digital platforms and social media to preserve the movement’s ideological presence.
From Social Legitimacy to Isolation
Participants agreed that the Brotherhood has lost much of the popular support on which it relied for decades, arguing that the events of 2013 reflected not merely a confrontation between the state and the movement but widespread public rejection of its experience in government.
Dr. Tawfik Aclimandos argued that the Brotherhood’s political and organizational conduct, particularly what he described as efforts to “Brotherhoodize” state institutions, significantly contributed to public opposition. He noted that the organization has largely lost its mobilization capacity amid changing political and social conditions. He also warned that weak collective memory among some segments of society could allow sympathy for the group to re-emerge if intellectual and media efforts to counter its narrative were to diminish.
Tarek Abu Al-Saad stated that the Brotherhood’s traditional bases of support within universities, professional associations, and civil society organizations have declined not only due to security measures but also to public disillusionment with its political performance while in power. As a result, many remaining sympathizers have chosen to conceal rather than publicly express their ideological affiliation.
Organizational Fragmentation
The seminar concluded that the Brotherhood is experiencing unprecedented organizational fragmentation after decades of operating under a highly centralized hierarchical structure. Mounir Adib noted multiple competing leadership centers, including the London Front, the Istanbul Front, and the General Office, as well as other breakaway factions. This fragmentation has weakened leadership unity, coherence, financing, and decision-making.
Tarek Abu Al-Saad added that internal divisions have gone far beyond organizational disagreements, evolving into public accusations among leaders involving alleged ties to intelligence agencies and financial misconduct. Such disputes, he argued, have severely damaged the Brotherhood’s image and undermined the moral legitimacy it long claimed, demonstrating that the crisis now affects not only the organization itself but also the ideological project upon which it was founded.
The Future of the Brotherhood’s Ideology
The seminar devoted considerable attention to the future of the Brotherhood’s ideological foundations. Mounir Adib argued that the ideas underpinning the movement have become considerably less attractive and that its ability to recruit and mobilize has declined significantly. He warned that some violent concepts derived from the Brotherhood’s literature continue to pose risks, making sustained intellectual engagement essential alongside legal and security measures.
Ahmed Ban, however, distinguished between the organization and its ideas, arguing that while the organizational structure is facing a profound crisis, elements of its ideology may continue to survive through new strategies centered on digital media, social networking platforms, and new communication technologies rather than traditional organizational frameworks.
Changing Operating Environment
Participants emphasized that the Brotherhood’s decline in Egypt has directly affected its regional and international branches by weakening centralized leadership, intensifying internal divisions, and disrupting financial and organizational networks.
Dr. Tawfik Aclimandos noted that the organization is attempting to reposition itself in parts of Europe by operating at the municipal level and within Muslim communities, leveraging civil society frameworks. At the same time, several European governments have begun reassessing their approach to the Brotherhood amid growing concerns about extremism and social cohesion.
Mounir Adib added that these developments have coincided with increasing international pressure on the organization, including terrorist designations affecting some of its branches and legislative initiatives in several European countries, reflecting broader concerns about the impact of Islamist movements on security and stability.
Future Scenarios
The speakers outlined several possible scenarios for the Brotherhood’s future, including continued fragmentation, the emergence of a smaller and less influential organization, or its transformation into a decentralized ideological movement operating primarily through digital networks rather than a traditional hierarchical structure, with each path carrying different implications for the movement’s influence and organization.
Mounir Adib considered the complete disintegration of the organization the most likely scenario, arguing that the Brotherhood has lost not only political power but also much of its social legitimacy, significantly reducing the influence of its founding ideology. Ahmed Ban proposed three possible paths: comprehensive internal revisions that could eventually lead to dissolving the organization and redefining its role; a split into moderate and hardline factions; or its evolution into a loosely organized ideological current centered on intellectual and media activities rather than formal organizational structures, each with distinct consequences for the movement’s future.
At the conclusion of the seminar, the participants emphasized the importance of sustaining comprehensive efforts to counter the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and internationally. They stressed that the organization serves as the parent movement from which numerous extremist groups and currents have emerged, contributing to the spread of terrorism in various parts of the world.
The experts further noted that the designation of some branches of the Brotherhood—particularly its founding branch in Egypt—as a terrorist organization in the United States represents a highly significant development and could mark the final nail in the coffin of an organization approaching its centenary.
The participants also underscored the need to maintain robust intellectual efforts to counter the Brotherhood, particularly in the digital sphere, which the group increasingly exploits to disseminate its extremist ideology and narratives. They commended TRENDS for its leading role in this regard through its research, publications, and scholarly initiatives aimed at exposing extremist ideology, promoting critical awareness, and strengthening societal resilience against radicalization.
