TRENDS Research & Advisory participated in a virtual roundtable titled “Securing Strategic Waters across the MENA Region: The Red Sea Theater”, organized by the Hollings Center for International Dialogue, a U.S. Congress-affiliated institution. During the event, researchers Abdulla Abdulrahman Al-Khaja and Dr. Serhat Çubukçuoğlu presented their perspectives on maritime security in the Red Sea and the growing threats facing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The discussion highlighted how ongoing conflicts and crises in Yemen, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa are increasingly becoming real maritime risks, affecting commercial shipping and global supply chains.
Global Trade Stability
Abdulla Abdulrahman Al-Khaja, a researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory, said that current developments in the Arabian Gulf have once again asserted the strategic importance of international straits and their pivotal role in maintaining the stability of global trade and energy markets. He noted that the recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrated how tensions in a vital maritime corridor can generate far-reaching political, economic, security, and legal consequences that extend beyond the borders of the Middle East.
Al-Khaja explained that the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. Recent conflicts have exposed the vulnerability of international supply chains, raising concerns about the growing use of strategic maritime chokepoints as instruments of geopolitical pressure. He added that disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait pose increasing challenges to international navigation, including higher insurance premiums, longer transit times, and rising operational costs for vessels traveling between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
Extremist Regional Proxies
Al-Khaja noted that the involvement of extremist regional proxies in targeting maritime routes has added a new and more complex dimension to the regional security environment. These developments have expanded the scope of concern and instability beyond specific conflict zones, affecting the wider Middle East and North Africa region and raising broader questions about the protection of international waterways and the resilience of global trade networks.
He added that current developments have demonstrated that international straits are no longer merely geographic transit routes. Instead, they have become strategic pressure points capable of influencing global markets, disrupting energy flows, and shaping international security dynamics.
Threats to Energy Flows
Dr. Serhat Çubukçuoğlu, Senior Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory, argued that the Red Sea is far more than a maritime corridor linking the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is an integrated political and security system connecting the Levant, the Arabian Gulf, the Horn of Africa, and North and East Africa. He explained that crises originating on land, particularly in Yemen, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa, are increasingly spilling over into the maritime domain, reshaping global trade patterns and threatening energy flows and regional stability.
He emphasized that state collapse in Sudan, arms smuggling, refugee movements, and external competition over Port Sudan could transform the conflict into a broader maritime crisis in the Red Sea. He added that the Horn of Africa adds another layer of complexity, with the presence of foreign military bases, growing competition over ports, and an intensified race for access to the sea.
Coercive Pressure Points
Dr. Çubukçuoğlu explained that the Red Sea crisis is both cyclical and structural. While maritime insecurity has existed for some time, a combination of precision-strike technologies, fragile states, extremist groups, proxy policies, and dependence on global supply chains has transformed key maritime routes into coercive pressure points, contributing to growing instability at sea.
He added that while the deployment of international naval forces in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is necessary, it is not sufficient on its own. The Red Sea’s security architecture must be linked to stability on land, supported by stronger capabilities among coastal countries and trade resilience policies that ensure the safe and uninterrupted flow of global energy supplies.
